Bordeaux 2010: Paul Pontallier of Chateau Margaux talks to Decanter

Bordeaux 2010 Château Cheval Blanc and Château d'Yquem, Pierre Lurton

Chateau Ausone- En Primeur 2010

Bordeaux 2010 Establishments Jean-Pierre Moueix - Christian Moueix En Primeur

Bordeaux 2010 Château Margaux - Paul Pontallier

Bordeaux 2010 Château Mouton Rothschild - Philippe Dhalluin

Bordeaux 2010 Château Pétrus - Jean-Claude Berrouet

Chateau Margaux release confirmed up on 2009, Cos down, l'Evangile flat

Monday 27 June 2011 by Adam Lechmere Comments (4)
Chateau Margaux 2010 has been released 9% up on 2009, it has been confirmed.

Despite early reports that some merchants had bought Chateau Margaux 2010 at a lower price than 2009, we can now confirm that Margaux is now being offered by negociants at €600, a 9% rise on the 2009 ex-negociant price of €550.

Margaux’s second wine, Pavillon Rouge, is almost double the price of the 2009 vintage: €108 ex-negociant, compared with €60 for the 2009.

Mouton-owned Pauillac fifth growth Chateau Clerc Milon is €48 ex-negociant, an increase of 33% on 2009's €36.

Cos d'Estournel – the renowned St Estephe second growth whose 2010 is described by Steven Spurrier as more ‘controlled and classic’ than the ‘baroque’ 2009 - is €198 from negociants.

This represents a drop of 5.7% on the 2009 price of €210.

The releases follow that of Lafite-owned Chateau l’Evangile in Pomerol late last week, a surprise at €180 ex-negociant– the same price as its 2009 wine.

‘The reaction from our clients is good, even if they are surprised at the timing,’ Mathieu Chardronnier of negociant CVGB told Decanter.com. Most reported that it was selling well.

Source : http://www.decanter.com

Bordeaux en primeur: the case for change

As Bordeaux packs up the tents, ice buckets and traffic barriers for another year at Vinexpo, the region's biennial trade fair, its focus has returned to the 2010 en primeur campaign. If you're not a keen follower of the fine wine scene, you may be amazed to hear that it's still going. But it is.

Like a day time soap opera you assumed had long disappeared from the screens, this one will run and run, even if its audience is dwindling. 2010 is already the longest en primeur pitch in history and it isn't finished yet. Most of the big names from the Left and Right Banks have yet to declare their prices. At this rate, wine merchants could be offering the last few wines around Christmas.

As this crazy campaign finally draws to a close, maybe now is a good time to look at Bordeaux en primeur and to ask a few questions about the whole system. First, whom does it benefit? Second, could it be improved? And if so, how?

The answer to the first question is the châteaux above all. They generate cash flow by selling their wine while it's still in barrel. Even if they over-price it (and 10%+ increases on record 2009 prices have been common this year) their wine is still purchased by the négociants, the middle men who normally take 15% commission but have had to work on much slimmer margins this year to sell the wines to reluctant merchants and consumers.

In 2009, every link in the supply chain turned to gold, but not this year. With a few exceptions, the campaign has been underwhelming, failing to engage collectors, investors and (remember them?) drinkers, despite the enthusiasm of wine writers. It's partly that the wines have been expensive -- higher than the current prices of 2009 and 2005, the last two "vintages of the century", in many cases -- but there's also a slight sense of boredom.

Good and great vintages in Bordeaux seem to be the norm these days, rather than the exception. 2011 is already looking like another one, even at this comparatively early stage. If there's plenty of excellent, mature wine on the market -- and there is -- why tie up your money in something that won't be approaching maturity for at least another decade, especially if it isn't going to show the returns that have turned fine wine into an "investment vehicle" in recent years?

The en primeur system needs radical change in my view. The wines are tasted too early for a start, especially from 2010, a vintage with some of the highest levels of acidity and tannin ever recorded. It was ironic that a couple of American critics thought they were scooping their colleagues by tasting two weeks before the rest of us. In reality, they were at a disadvantage, since the wines were even harder to assess in March than they were in early April.

Young Bordeaux is notoriously difficult to taste. Why not put the en primeur cycle back a year? We would all make more reliable judgments if the wines had more time to integrate in barrel. And given the price of top Bordeaux, reliable judgments are more essential than ever.

As things stand, the samples that are presented to journalists and the trade are not always (seldom?) representative of what appears in bottle: different blends, different barrels, unfined, unfiltered. In an ideal world, samples would be audited by the Conseil Interprofessionel du Vin de Bordeaux (CIVB) for consistency. As things stand, the system invites abuse.

An even bigger problem is pricing. Journalists and merchants are asked to taste, comment and score individual wines before they know how much they will cost. The châteaux then fix their prices based on the reaction of the market. The situation reaches its nadir with Robert Parker, who remains the most powerful wine critic for Bordeaux. He can rail all he likes against the greed of the Bordelais, but they are using his scores and comments to make money. Millions of euros of it.

Parker could stop this by refusing to score the wines until the prices are released, as could all of us. But it won't happen because most wine writers are competing with one another rather than trying to provide a service for consumers. It is our job to highlight value for money and, conversely, to criticise ridiculous prices. The gloves need to come off.

The same applies to most wine merchants, and not just in the UK. Rather than seeing en primeur as a way to make money, trying to convince punters that these are "must buy" wines when most of the time they aren't, they should provide an honest and dispassionate assessment of the vintage, the campaign and the prices of individual wines.

There's way too much respect given to the top châteaux and the 1855 classification. Blind tasting would help to eliminate some of this, but the top châteaux don't permit it. "You've got to play the game," one wine merchant told me recently, "or the Bordelais will exclude you." Maybe they will, but it's time someone changed the rules. This game has gone on long enough.

Originally published in OLN

Source : http://www.timatkin.com

Sleepless in Bordeaux?

Posted on June 16, 2011 by Tim Atkin

As Bordeaux prepares to welcome the world to the biennial Vinexpo trade fair this weekend, the increasingly overblown 2010 en primeur campaign has gone into hibernation.  But what happened earlier today should give the châteaux owners a few sleepless nights.

I don’t want to overstate the case, but the decision of Barrière Frères, a medium-sized négociant, to break the omertà-like vow of silence that governs the dealings of the Bordeaux wine trade could have huge implications for the future of the largest fine wine region on the planet.

Barrière, the commercial arm of Grands Millésimes de France and the owner of Château Beychevelle, chose to speak its mind about the campaign, communicating with wine merchants around the world. The wine that pushed it over the edge was the 2010 Rauzan-Ségla, which increased its price from E60 in 2009 to E84 in 2010.

The company said it has “decided to refuse directly its allocation on this wine as we find this offering completely out of line”. It might not be “ludicrous” – I gave the wine 94 points in my 2010 Bordeaux report – but it is certainly a huge hike. As Barrière pointed out, the 2000 and 2005 from the same château are currently available in bottle at E67 and E70. “We can accept some crazy prices,” it added, “but now it’s enough!!!”

The châteaux might choose to shrug this off – after all Barrière is a much smaller négociant than the likes of Joanne, CVBG and Duclot – but they shouldn’t. Barrière is only saying in public what many of its competitors are grumbling about behind closed office doors. As one of them told me: “This campaign has been too late, too expensive and too bunched up.”

It’s hard to feel too sorry for the négociants. As the outspoken Simon Staples, sales and marketing manager of Berry Brothers, puts it: “Normally they earn 15% commission for doing diddly squat.” But this year they have been squeezed between the high prices of most châteaux and the refusal of wine merchants to accept them.

Some négociants have been reduced to selling wines at cost to get rid of their allocations, rather than face the prospect of financing expensive stockholdings in due course. “They’ve been juggling hot coals,” adds Staples. “The négoce are starting to get nervous about holding such a big amount of stock,” agrees Stephen Browett of Farr Vintners.
Historically, the châteaux have been protected by a system known as “la place”. The way this works is that in order to maintain their allocations from one year to the next, the négociants have to buy en primeur, whether the merchants and we the consumers choose to purchase from them or not. It is often said that Bordeaux is an open market, governed by the laws of supply and demand, but this isn’t true. The négociants provide a safety net which effectively allows the châteaux to charge what they like.
Some wines sell better than others en primeur – and it looks as if Rauzan-Ségla has flopped – but in a normal year that wouldn’t matter. The négociants would still buy them, releasing them onto the market once they were bottled in an attempt to recover some of their outlay.
But maybe this is changing. This en primeur campaign is like no other. A few of the top châteaux have shown restraint – Domaine de Chevalier, Calon-Ségur, Grand Puy Lacoste are good examples – but many more seem to have lost their grip on reality. And we haven’t yet seen the release prices from the likes of Ducru-Beaucaillou and Cos d’Estournel, let alone the First Growths.
The négociants, like most merchants and journalists, think that with very few exceptions the 2010s should be offered at the same prices as the 2009s, or for less in some instances. But that hasn’t happened. The châteaux have pushed through increases regardless. “Most of the wines are over-priced,” one négociant told me off the record. “This year I’ve not taken my allocation of a number of wines, even though I may lose it next year.”
Will any other négociants follow Barrière Frères’ lead? The châteaux have always relied on a policy of divide and rule, but if the négociants were to join forces, taking a joint decision that enough is enough, it might bring some sanity to this crazy campaign. It’s probably too late for this year, but if they removed the safety net, forcing the châteaux to run the risk of crashing, limbs flailing, to earth, it would change the en primeur market for the better. More to the point, they’d be doing consumers a favour too.

 

2010 campaign begins at last?

9th June, 2011 by Rupert Millar 
 

This week has seen the release of some of the more notable names among the Bordeaux châteaux, leading some to ask if the campaign is finally starting to take off.

With rumours of low consumer interest and with many thinking that Vinexpo will be the stage for most releases, this year’s en primeur campaign has been slower than usual.
The big names released at the beginning of the week included Gruaud Larose, Haut Batailley and Giscours, as well as second wines Echo de Lynch-Bages and Les Pagodes de Cos.
These were quickly followed by Pontet Canet, Calon Ségur and Phelan Ségur. Liv-ex reported that the average price increase of these bigger names was 20% up on 2009 prices, but Pontet Canet itself is a full 39% up on ‘09 with an ex-négociant price of €100 a bottle.
The château’s prices have come on steadily since 2005 when it was €47 a bottle from the négociants, a 113% increase. Pagodes de Cos is also getting more expensive. Its €40 a bottle tag is only 11% higher than last year (€36) but it is 90.5% more expensive than 2005 when it came out at €21.
The price jump did little to dampen Pontet-Canet’s demand however and it was trading on the index at £1,400 a case yesterday morning before settling back down to £1,210 by the afternoon.
The ’09s saw an uplift as a result, rising from last month’s £1,185 to £1,260. However, prices for its other vintages remain attractive and it was recently named the best value Bordeaux at a retrospective tasting attended by the drinks business.
However, the stop-start nature of the campaign is apparently exasperating some merchants, with Bordeaux Index founder, Gary Boom, calling it a “mixed picture”.
He said: “The releases have been frustratingly slow and the pricing perhaps even higher than we had predicted.

“It’s long been our contention that demand would be softer, but with an emerging trend of price hikes in excess of 10% in some of the smaller wines, the châteaux risk turning off consumers before the campaign even warms up.

“Only Beychevelle stands out so far. Priced at a discount to both the ‘05 and ‘09 market prices, its perceived value saw it sell extremely strongly.”
Lay & Wheeler have Beychevelle at £348 a case, however, you only get six bottles in exchange. Although 2009 was more expensive at around £511 when it began trading last year, it was for a full case.
Rupert Millar, 09.06.2011

Bordeaux and China

Jane Anson (first published Wine Business International, May 2011)

There was an excited whisper following one particular group during the Bordeaux en primeur tastings this year. It was repeated at each of the most illustrious chateaux, and every time would be followed by the people in question being swept off into a private room and attended to by the chateau director or owner.

You won’t be surprised to learn that the excitement was prompted by a group of senior directors – not even wine buyers – from Air China. And the whisper that followed them was, ‘They are going to be the largest airline in the world in the next few years.’

There were a few other tell-tale signs of how the market has shifted. During a week when 6,000 wine professionals from almost 70 countries had travelled to the region, at almost all the top name chateaux, vintage reports were piled on tables in a choice of just three languages – French, English and Chinese. Several estates, including Chateau Haut-Brion and Chateau Cos d’Estournel, had Chinese-speaking staff on hand, some freshly hired for the occasion. And there was plenty of speculation that even at 2009 prices – or higher – the majority of the 2010 vintage would be heading eastwards.

To say that Bordeaux is full of optimism for the Chinese market would have most observers snorting into their cornflakes. On paper, the figures back up the optimism – China, including Hong Kong, became the world’s largest importer of Bordeaux wines in 2010, importing some 33.5 million bottles at a cost of €330 million, according to figures from the Bordeaux Wine Bureau (CIVB). Bordeaux accounts for around 30% of all French wine imports to China, and the latest figures reflected a value increase of 98% for China and of 126% for Hong Kong. The UK, from January to October 2010, imported wine to a value of €221m, reflecting how this most traditional of Bordeaux markets is being eclipsed by the Far East – even if right now more Bordeaux imports to Hong Kong come from England than from Bordeaux itself.

In 2011, according to the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, the country is due to overtake the Japanese as the world’s largest consumer of luxury goods. Already in 2010, they consumed US$9.4 billion worth of luxury goods, leap-frogging the United States into second place globally. And the top estates of Bordeaux, despite still professing to be ‘drinking wines’, are in reality fast repositioning themselves as luxury goods.

‘China has contributed hugely to exhausting any inventory that the 1855 chateaux were holding in stock – and this has inevitably put pressure on prices. But once a wine bypasses the €1000 a bottle mark,’ says Jean-Pierre Rousseau of Bordeaux wine merchants Diva (a company which counts over half its turnover from Asia), ‘it is necessarily limiting itself to a tiny number of buyers – and right now, those buyers are almost entirely in China. To pretend otherwise is simply not realistic.’

But although this is nothing new (the appetite for drinking top Bordeaux has now been obvious in China for at least five years), the effect of the ‘Chinese Invasion’ – as a local newspaper described it a few months ago – is less clear, but potentially game-changing. Not least because the Bordélais are realising that they cannot entirely dictate the terms of engagement.

Firstly, there is the obvious effect – price rises in the market, and a skewering of the export destinations for the wines. Some estimates for the 2010 en primeurs expect prices to move upwards of 30% from 2009 for the top estates, and most believe that the Super Seconds (which now include the second wines of the First Growths) will try to match the price rises of the Firsts. Besides the obvious question of whether they will find buyers at these prices, commentators suggest that the price rises are changing the very fundamentals of the Bordeaux system; where a group of négociants have historically parcelled up small segments of chateaux production and distributed them widely across the world, thus ensuring controlled supply, slowly increasing prices and effective brand-building. Increasing numbers of alarmist headlines suggest that the market is getting dangerously dependent on one country, and that no matter how closely chateaux monitor their distribution, wherever it is initially sold, the wine will still end up in China, where the prices are highest.

Of course, to date, the Chinese have only really been buying the very top and the very bottom end of Bordeaux. And many other wine-producing countries (and smaller chateaux within Bordeaux) would love to be facing the same problems. Marc Soccio, senior analyst at Rabobank, commented in his Global Wine Quarterly report, ‘French wine producers formed deep distribution channel partnerships and strong consumer associations with their products owing to pioneering efforts since the early 1980s. With the general level of consumer appreciation of wine (in China) at an elementary level, distributors play a critical ‘gatekeeper’ role in influencing what consumers purchase and how they perceive value. With wine consumption still predominantly based around customary entertaining and gift-giving occasions, Chinese consumers are primarily interested in making a ‘safe’ purchase that can confidently convey a suitable level of prestige, status and respect. More often than not, this means French.’

Thomas Jullien, the CIVB’s representative in Asia, based out of Hong Kong, thinks talks of an over-reliance on the Chinese market is absurd. ‘Overall around 5% of Bordeaux production goes to China, while 60% goes to France. If we worry about over-reliance on one market, it should not be China, particularly when you look at the depth of the market, and the growth rate of its economy. If you take a longer-term view, you see that high-end Bordeaux wines have always been sought-after by emerging economies – that has been the long-term history of the Bordeaux wine trade.’

Soccio to a large extent agrees with him, certainly in the context of the current economic reality. ‘It's a difficult balance to strike. I wouldn't say they're over-dependent at this stage, but this market has undoubtedly gained in significance and provided welcome and lucrative sales during the global economic downturn. They're right to capitalise on their market development efforts in China, especially when other more traditional markets are struggling, but they need to be mindful of maintaining service to long standing customers around the world.’

There is another interpretation possible though. Although it has certainly been the history of Bordeaux to export its best wines – only 40% of its overall production leaves France, but 70-80% when you take the classified estates (whether 1855, Pessac Léognan or Saint Emilion) and the top Pomerols. The really interesting question is, now that Chinese businessmen are replacing Robert Parker as the single most important price-indicator for Bordeaux wines, what does this mean for the trading system? Are the Bordélais fooling themselves that they continue as before, without realising how fundamentally different the Chinese approach is likely to be?

Until now, as new markets came on board, access to them was controlled by Bordeaux merchants, and to a certain extent by English merchants who have secured large allocations over centuries of trade. The Chinese, or so it seems on current evidence, are not interested in following this system, and are buying estates with the stated intention of shortening the chain between producer and consumer.

This makes it possible to see the influx in recent years of Chinese property purchases in Bordeaux as a potential launch-pad, as opposed to an end in itself. Purchases started small in January 2008 with Chateau Latour Laguens in Entre deux Mers and most recently (March 2011) had moved upwards to the more prestigious Cru Bourgeois estate Chateau Laulan Ducos in the Médoc. After each of the sales (seven in total, three this year alone), the distribution of the wines moved entirely to China. Even Laulan Ducos, a wine that traditionally has been sent to around 40 countries worldwide, will now send its entire 150,000 bottle production to China, bypassing the traditional network of brokers an merchants – and has been given a packaging makeover to suit Chinese consumers.

But the most interesting development came in February 2011, with the acquisition of Lalande-de-Pomerol estate Chateau de Viaud by a government-backed agri-business conglomerate, COFCO. Speaking at the signing ceremony (in itself highly unusual), COFCO vice chairman Chi Jingtao said that the Chinese government was interested in assuring products sold in China were authentic and unadulterated. ‘We have a strategy for constructing a complete chain from production to consumption to guard against forgeries and to reassure our clients. Being involved from the vineyard upwards in Bordeaux helps to strengthen this commitment.’

Among their stated plans, besides the distribution of Viaud itself in China, was the distribution of other classified wines through a merchant company owned by the previous owner of Viaud, Philippe Raoux, and the creation of a branded wine for the Chinese market. Owning a chateau in Bordeaux allows the property holder to get round complicated rules about grape purchases, and gives them theoretical access to large amounts of wine. Until now, very few chateaux owners have taken advantage of this, leaving it to the Bordeaux négociants. But the Chinese owners are happy to do it themselves.

Jean-Luc Coupet, director at Wine Bankers & Cie, was instrumental in putting together the Viaud puchase, and sees it having a far-reaching significance. ‘By making this purchase, the Chinese government has legitimised the idea of investing in Bordeaux vineyards. In a country where government-approval is all-important, I think this will have an immense impact, and we will see the value and prestige of investments rising over the next few years. There is not much resistance to selling classified estates to the Chinese from the Bordeaux side, particularly when there are shareholders involved – and why should there be, when the French are prolific investors in vineyards world over. But more fundamental changes to the market? I am less certain about that. Return on investment is slow with vineyards and the current system needs big pockets and a long-term view.’

The biggest concern may well be that, while things are good, no-one wants to look too closely. As Coupet says, ‘Right now there is a balance between chateaux and négociants, but if prices drop, it can becomes a war, as has happened in the past. When all goes well, négociants easily sell upwards of 100 to 200 names. When things go badly, that shrinks to 30 or 40. That model becomes less sustainable today, when chateaux demand to know their customers and don’t leave it all to merchants as they did in the past. Then the Chinese arrive, without the same historical hang-ups, and take distribution in their own hands. It’s possible that all this may speed up the process of a split.’



Wine Trading
Another much-disputed effect of recent price rises in Bordeaux has been the growth of wine investment funds and online wine trading platforms such as Liv-ex and the newly launched BWineEx, that treat the trading of wines in the same way as any stock exchange. The concern is that the wine funds, more than any other factor, are skewing the market by buying up reserves of wine and holding on to them, creating the potential of a glut. Similar companies are now springing up in China itself, suggesting the formation of ‘a bubble within a bubble’ as commented one Bordeaux observer. The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and China CITIC Bank began to provide financial products investing in wine in cooperation with Chateau Junding (co-owned by COFCO) in 2008, and in October 2010 the first foreign-backed fund opened within China itself from the French bank Société Génerale. It’s not hard to see why this is happening – the average age of wealthy people on the mainland (meaning those with more than $1 million investable assets) is 36, compared with 48 in Hong Kong and 43 in Taiwan, a report from HSBC Holdings Plc showed. And these young millionaires are interested in wine. Tellingly, a new Chinese government watchdog body was created in early 2011 to oversee the wine industry, in recognition of how dizzying fast it is growing. These funds are almost entirely stocked with Bordeaux classed growths and the concern is that while they have helped maintain their pricing, but if the market falters, could prove toxic to the overall system.

The Wine Property Market
So far, Chinese property purchases are not translating into increased prices for sellers. The vineyard property market in Bordeaux remained relatively stable in 2010 according to the SAFER Aquitaine Atlantique. There were 345 transactions resulting in 1490 hectares changing hands in 2010 as against 328 transactions and 1590 hectares in 2009. The overall value of these transactions declined by 11% over the same period, from €110 million in 2009 to €97 million in 2010, perhaps because as Alex Hall, vineyard consultant, points out, ‘So far Chinese purchases have been made in appellations where supply outstrips demand. Ironically, many of the properties they are interested in buying are on the market because the owners have the product but lack the distribution.’ 

The Bordeaux wine bubble is fizzing up, up and away

A leading claret has raised its price for the 2010 vintage by 39 per cent, reports Victoria Moore.

A village scene in Bordeaux  

By Victoria Moore

7:00AM BST 09 Jun 2011

7 Comments

If anyone thought the warning of American wine critic, Robert Parker - dubbed 'the pope of the vineyards’ - to the Bordelais this week to be modest with release prices of the 2010 Bordeaux vintage or risk facing a 'financial crisis’ in the “fragile global economy” was going to calm matters, they counted without the swagger of Chateau Pontet Canet.

“How do I decide on the price and timing of the sortie?” Alfred Tesseron, who runs the super-cinquième – the Chateau was placed as a 5th growth in the famous 1855 classification but its reputation has soared way beyond its ranking – said to me when I visited in April for the annual barrel-sample-tasting circus that precedes the release of prices. “I wait for suddenly one day I wake up and I know what I think.”

Yesterday, it seems, M. Tesseron woke up and thought that, despite all the tension surrounding this vintage, it was a good day to release Pontet Canet at a jaw-dropping 39% rise on last year (and 113% up on the 2005).

The wine, which had received high scores from the most influential critics, came onto the market at Euros 100 a bottle just after breakfast time: the cue for merchants to seize their allocation, broadcast the news to their clients via email and telephone and sell, sell, sell. Which is exactly what they did: and by elevenses most, if not all of it, had shifted.

“Pontet Canet literally flying out of the door,” tweeted wine merchant Bordeaux Index, who say they sold out within half an hour. Over in Berry Brothers’ Hong Kong office, things were equally frenzied: Adam Bilbey describes the 20 minutes following Pontet Canet’s release as, “the craziest of my life….Dear Alfred [Tesseron]. Put the feet up, grab the mojito and spark up the cohiba. Job done.”

It’s such a crazy business it’s easy to forget all this fuss is about something ostensibly produced as a drink (the Pontet Canet ’10 tastes impressive, delicious and polished, even at this early stage, but it’s not exactly a bargain).
The influx of new money from the rich Asian market over the past couple of decades has turned the top-rated wines into an investment commodity.
One Bordeaux negociant told me the atmosphere in his office as the key chateaux make their sorties is, “Like a trading floor in a civil war. Phones ringing, people shouting, keyboards hammering as emails are sent. Crazy.”
But this has been a particularly strange en primeur campaign (note that even the language used to describe the mere sale of wine is martial).
Despite some insanely high levels of alcohol, the vintage is widely regarded as being a winner. Or should I say, another winner, to follow 2000, 2005 and 2009 – all years that had both critics and merchants reaching for their handy little bag of superlatives, and producers joyfully cranking up the prices.
As one “vintage of the century” follows another, the more anxiety there is that such rises cannot be sustained: the Bordeaux bubble begins to look like a smaller, and more rarefied, version of the housing market, constantly exceeding expectations to the point where it seems it must surely burst.
It’s a bubble, created by a tiny number of buyers – some say no more than a few hundred people – in Asia, and inflated by speculators in the West who follow them. The glossiest chateaux names – the vinous equivalents of a good address in Belgravia – have in recent years proved good investments.
Still, this spring there was some uncertainty over whether “the market” would be able to absorb the level of prices Bordeaux egos might demand for their much-lauded 2010s, particularly after customers were still feeling the pinch of having invested so heavily in the 2009s.
Early May turned to late May turned into June with precious few releases, an unsettling calm before the storm of sorties that began this week. Among yesterday’s tumble of key names came Pagodes de Cos (+11.1% on last year), Giscours (+19.2%) and Calon Segur (+12.5%, and another fast seller).
Robert Parker can criticise all he likes; the rest of us can feel disenfranchised all we like, we can accuse the Bordelais of greed all we like, but if they can put up the prices, the Bordelais will.
They’re encouraged by the fact that Chinese interest in buying wine en primeur, before it’s bottled, though relatively new is growing rapidly.
One chateau owner told me he thought that, “One third of our production ended up being sold to China en primeur last year. We’re not sure because we are not selling directly but this is what our eyes on the ground tell us.”
Where this will end, we can only wait and see. I can’t help but notice that as far as drinkers are concerned current release prices are making more mature wines from less-feted vintages look like relative bargains. But all eyes will be watching out for the release of the first growths, waiting to see not just how ambitiously they are priced but also how fast they sell.
Still booming?
Giscours: €43.50 per bottle: +19.2% on 2009 (€36.50), +27.2% on 2005 (€34.20)
Pagodes de Cos: €40 per bottle: +11.1% on 2009 (€36), +90.5% on 2005 (€21)
Calon Segur: €57.60 per bottle: +12.5% on 2009 (€51.20), +25% on 2005 (€46)
Haut Batailley: €27.50 per bottle: +17% on 2009 (€23.5), +28% on 2005 (€21.50)
Data supplied by Liv-ex. All are ex-negociant (broker) prices.

US wine critic finds Bordeaux prices hard to swallow

By Chantal Valery and Suzanne Mustacich (AFP) – Jun 7, 2011

BORDEAUX, France — One of the world's most influential wine critics is alarmed by the high price of Bordeaux wine, saying the region risks hurting itself by focusing so much on the East Asian market.
"Bordeaux is the epicenter of the greatest wines," Robert Parker said in an interview with AFP. "I hate to see the image damaged by the fact people tend to think it's too expensive."
"Bordeaux is focused too much on the wealthy Asian market," Parker said. "Despite the fact that China has so many wealthy people, it's a very dangerous game if they raise prices, because the world economy is very, very fragile."
It would be a "smart move" for top chateaux to sell the 2010 vintage 10 to 20 percent lower than the 2009 vintage, which commanded record prices, he added.
"It would be a very positive sign to the marketplace and to wine consumers," he said by phone. "If they come higher than 2009, we're going to have a big, big crisis."
Maryland-based Parker, 63, founder of the Wine Advocate magazine and website, has been credited -- or lambasted, depending on one's point of view -- with boosting the prices of Bordeaux's top brands.
"I'm aware by giving an evaluation I have an influence on the positioning pricing in the international market place, but there's nothing I could do about it," he said.
The closely followed wine critic is not the only force driving prices upward, other wine experts say.
"The chateaux care about Robert Parker scores, but they have an eye on the Far East," said Gary Boom, managing director of Bordeaux Index, with offices in Hong Kong and London.
"I was in Bordeaux a couple weeks ago and I told the chateaux then that if the prices go up, the wines will sell, but ownership will get transferred to the Far East," he said.
"They will go exclusively to the Far East. They don't seem to care."
Buyers in China and Hong Kong -- now the biggest single market for Bordeaux wine -- can be fickle, however.
"If it's a 'Far East' brand like Beychevelle, I will sell everything, but if not, my sales are down," Boom said, referring to Bordeaux labels that are especially well-known in Asia.
Last year, Boom sold 800 cases of wine from a Bordeaux chateau not famous in East Asia, only to sell 80 cases this year against the backdrop of higher prices.
"Parker is ubiquitous, he's massive, but the consumers also follow their wallet," he said.
This time last year, Bordeaux buyers were paying record prices for the 2009 vintage. On Tuesday, 2009 Petrus was selling at 35,000 euros (51,000 dollars) for a case of 12 bottles and Chateau Latour at 13,450 euros per case.
At the more popular end of the market, 2009 Chateau Cantemerle was going for a relatively steep 24 euros per bottle, according to wine-searcher.com, a website that tracks wine prices around the world.
Many consumers are still suffering from price shock, aggravated in the United States -- still the world's number-one wine consumer -- by the sagging value of the US dollar.
"Heck, people want to forget the huge increases in 2009," said James Gunter at Glazers, a major US wine distributor.
Many of Glazers' clients invested heavily in 2009 in upcoming vintages, he said. "They have money out for these wines, which will not start to arrive for another four to six months. Most are not in a position to invest more money."
The British market doesn't look much better.
"If prices go up, the UK will not buy," Boom said. "The negociants (wine merchants) will be forced to sit on the stock -- and prices will come down. They will lose money. They can lose money on one vintage but not two."

Bordeaux 2010 Release Price Quick view

Chateau	RP score	JR score	Price (€/b)	Vs. '09
Angelus	94-96	17.5	225	7%
Ausone	98-100	18.5	1,120	+17%
Beychevelle	93-95	17	54	+23%
Branaire Ducru	93-95	17	48	+11%
Calon Segur	92-94	18	57.6	+13%
Carruades de Lafite	91-94	17.5	108	+59%
Cheval Blanc	96-98	18.5	850	+21%
Conseillante	95-98	17	150	+9%
Cos d'Estournel	95-97	18.5	198	-6%
Ducru Beaucaillou	96-98	18	150	-17%
Duhart Milon	94-96	17.5	66	+74%
Evangile	96-98	18	180	+0%
Figeac		17.5	168	+5%
Grand Puy Lacoste	93-96	17	57.6	+20%
Gruaud Larose	92-94	16	45	+14%
Haut Brion	98-100	18	660	+10%
Lafite Rothschild	98-100	19	600	+9%
Lagrange St Julien		17.5	39.6	+7%
Langoa Barton	90-92	17.5	44.5
Latour	98-100	19	780	+30%
Leoville Barton	91-93	18	72	+15%
Leoville Las Cases	95-98	17.5	192	-11%
Leoville Poyferre	95-98	17.5	85	+18%
Lynch Bages	95-97	16	100	+39%
Margaux	96-98	19	600	+9%
Mission Haut Brion	98-100	18	600	+11%
Montrose	96-99	17	132	+22%
Mouton Rothschild	97-100	18.5	600	+9%
Palmer	95-97	18	215	+0%
Pape Clement	93-95	16.5	94.8	+47%
Pavie	95-98	17	225	+15%
Pavillon Rouge	90-92	17.5	108	+80%
Petit Mouton	90-93	16	108	+80%
Petrus	98-100	19
Pichon Baron	97-99	18	132	+47%
Pichon Lalande	92-95	17	138	+10%
Pontet Canet	96-100	17.5	100	+39%
Talbot	91-93	17	39.6	+10%
Troplong Mondot	96-98	15.5	98.4	+9%
Vieux Chateau Certan	96-98	18.5	180

Mixed reactions to Hong Kong Latour sale

2nd June, 2011 by Rupert Millar 
 

Last week’s ex-cellar sale of Latour at Christie’s in Hong Kong has been widely hailed as a success, however there were signs that it failed to generate the same level of excitement as Lafite’s auction last year.

Two vintages led the way for Latour over the eight-hour sale – 1961 and 1945 – all of which roundly trumped their high-estimates, being sold for over HK$1 million each.
The lots of six magnums from 1961 were the highest-selling lots on the night, each of the three lots selling for HK$1.8m. The four cases of 1961 sold for HK$1.4m each or £130,608. The current best list price on Liv-ex for a case of 1961 Latour is £36,835.
A small bidding war also developed over a bottle of 1901, which, with a high estimate of HK$15,000, eventually sold for HK$45,000.
David Elswood, international head of wine for Christie’s, said: “The sale marks a triumphant result for Château Latour in Hong Kong. Vintage 1961 reigned supreme, achieving a new record price of HK$1.8m for the 6 magnum lots, while the imperial sold for HK$1.68m.
“The sale once again demonstrates the tremendous appeal of Château Latour and the strong demand for wines of the highest quality and rarity.”
However, despite the good results it was clear that some of the lots did not succeed quite as well as Lafite might have done.
Bidding for vintages in the forties, with the exception of 1945, was noticeably sluggish and the 19th century bottles, although sold above their estimates, failed to hit the HK$1m mark that Lafite managed with ease last year for its 1869.
Liv-ex has pointed out that the lots of 2009, 2005 and 2000 in particular, generally sold below the Liv-ex mid price with the hammer prices being £11,355, £8,615 and £9,395 respectively. However their respective Liv-ex prices stand at £11,800, £9,075 and £9,500.

For more on the 1961 vintage see the June issue of the drinks business.
Rupert Millar, 02.06.2011

Mission: In search of value

23 May 2011

According to the last Liv-ex Classification - which attempted to mimic the Bordeaux 1855 classification by ranking chateaux based purely on price - Mission Haut Brion is something of an unofficial First Growth. Prices have reached new summits in recent years and 2010 is expected to be no exception, having earned itself a place amongst Parker's potentially perfect wines. But it isn't just the latest vintage that is garnering attention.
Over the past year, post-millennial vintages from 2000-2008 have moved in price by an average of 43 per cent. Among the top performers is the 2001, which has almost doubled in value in this time. Even so, the 91-point wine seems relatively undervalued at £1,700 per case - a third of the price of the 2009 and around half of the price of the cheapest available First Growth (Haut Brion 2007). The 2003 (RP 94) has also seen spectacular price appreciation and is up 67 per cent year on year. Still, cases can be had for just over £1,820.
But how do prices compare with those of Haut Brion, the chateau's neighbour and the most affordable of the Premiers Crus? The last ten vintages of Mission are currently trading at an average of 62 per cent of the price of their Haut Brion equivalents (as shown in the chart). This figure falls to 43 per cent if we include the rest of the First Growths in the calculation.


The table below shows the current value and year-on-year price movement of Mission 2000-2009. Though it has not seen the same price acceleration as its siblings, the 95-point 2006 stands out as strong value, and may look even better if the 2010 is released at the same price level as the '09. Liv-ex trading members can view live markets here.

 
Scores from erobertparker.com 
To keep up with all of the latest news and views from Bordeaux, follow Liv-ex on Twitter (@Livex) and Facebook (www.facebook.com/Livex.Fine.Wine.Exchange).

Premier Cru performance - quarter by quarter

24 May 2011

After a vertiginous run in the last quarter of 2010, the past three months have seen the Liv-ex Fine Wine 50 Index ascend - and descend - at a slower pace. The Index, which tracks the price performance of the last ten physical vintages of the First Growths, zigzagged its way to 437.01 yesterday, reflecting a modest three-month increase of one per cent. Of course, the index does not show the individual performance of each of its composite brands. To do this, we have taken the basket value of the last ten vintages of each First Growth and then ranked the brands according to their quarterly price performance. Their changing fortunes since April 2009 are shown in the chart below.



As you can see (and as readers of the blog will know), Haut Brion has outstripped its peers in recent months and posted the largest returns in the first quarter. The effects of the Sotheby's Lafite Ex-Cellar Auction in Hong Kong in late October can also be seen, as Lafite recovered from its relatively poor performance in the third quarter to end 2010 in first place. Since the start of the year, however, the Premier Cru's prices have remained relatively flat. 

2011 Liv-ex Bordeaux Classification

25 May 2011

In March 2009, Liv-ex recreated the 1855 Classification by ranking major Left Banks using the original 1855 criterion: price. The results of our analysis caused quite a stir and can be viewed in full here. Now, two years on, the market has shifted and we have updated our classification to reflect current trading conditions. 

Criteria and calculation:

To qualify for the Liv-ex Bordeaux Classification, wines had to be from the Left Bank (including Pessac-Leognan) and be produced in quantities of more than 2,000 cases. Only the first wine of each estate was considered. We then calculated the average case price for every qualifying wine (lowest available wholesale price for an in-bond owc 12x75cl case in good condition, excluding duty and sales tax) for the past five vintages, 2005-2009. Prices are as of 30 April 2011.

As the brokers did in 1855 (and we did previously in 2009) we then split up the wines according to price band, which for 2011 are as follows:

• 1st Growths: £3,300 a case and above
• 2nd Growths: £700 to £3,299
• 3rd Growths: £400 to £699
• 4th Growths: £280 to £399
• 5th Growths: £220 to £279

These price bands were modified from those used in 2009 by calculating the average price difference between the 2009 and 2011 studies for each level of the classification and then applying this modifier to the previous price bands. This change ranged from 11% for the Fifths, to more than 60% for the Firsts.

It remains a matter of academic debate whether the wines were listed in their respective classes in order of price/quality – though the evidence seems to point to this being so. We have assumed they were for the purposes of this analysis.

Download The 2011 Liv-ex Bordeaux Classification



2011 highlights:

Lafite retakes its position as the top wine of the Left Bank this year - a position it surrendered to Latour in 2009. And in a repeat of the Liv-ex '09 Classification, Mission Haut Brion joins the ranks of the First Growths, although it has started to fall behind. Lower down the list, Duhart Milon, Beychevelle and Pontet Canet graduate to Second-Growth status. Leoville Barton drops down to become a Third Growth.

The second wines: If the second wines from the great estates were included, where would they rank?

If we include the second wines, which didn't exist in 1855, 13 would qualify for this year's classification. Most notable is the fact that Carruades would be counted amongst the First Growths. Meanwhile, Forts de Latour would be the top Second Growth, with Pavillon Rouge, Petit Mouton and Clarence Haut Brion also positioned within the ranks of the Seconds. 

Comparing the most recent classification to that of 2009, the table below shows the biggest climbers. Many of these are brands that are popular in Asia.

Latour ex-cellar sale fails to hit Lafite high notes

27 May 2011

After the extraordinary success of the Sotheby's Lafite ex-cellar sale in October, today's Latour ex-cellar auction in Hong Kong was expected to spark similar enthusiasm. The sale featured vintages from 1863 to 2009, and all bottles were fitted with a Prooftag seal and a label confirming their provenance. During the first rounds of bidding, however, buyers seemed somewhat uninspired, with the 2009, 2005 and 2000 all falling under the hammer at a discount to the Liv-ex Mid Price (our trade-to-trade transaction price, which is generally ten to 25 per cent lower than merchant list prices). 

The table below shows a selection of some of the recent vintages that were on offer. If we compare the prices that these 12x75cl cases fetched at auction (removing the buyer's premium of 20 per cent) to each wine's Liv-ex Mid Price, the majority of sales were in line with, or just below, current market prices. This said, many of the older, rarer wines were in strong demand and changed hands at two to three times the price of their auction estimates. The 1863, 1961 and 1945 were among the super-premium sales of the day, having drawn bids of HK$450,000 (£35,240; 1x75cl), HK$1,500,000 (6x150cl; £117,450) and HK$1,300,000 (12x75cl; £101,790) respectively, excluding buyer's premium.

 
Prices are for 12x75cl cases and exclude buyer's premium.

Bordeaux prices to rise up to 15pc

• Adam Sage
• From: The Times
• May 09, 2011 10:01AM

The wealthiest vineyards are preparing an increase of up to 15 per cent for the 2010 vintage. Picture: AFP Source: The Australian

THE PRICE of a bottle of the very finest Bordeaux is about to soar higher than ever, driven up by a second successive exceptional vintage -- and by China's insatiable thirst for an investment.

"The chateaux are saying to themselves: 'We'd like to ask just a little bit more than last year,'" Miguel Coumau, a Bordeaux-based wine broker, said.
"They reckon people are prepared to break open their piggy banks to buy their wines."
That means a bonanza for the top 130 chateaux in Bordeaux, the Rolls-Royces of the wine trade far removed from the struggles affecting the rest of the industry in France.
Wholesale prices for the widely praised 2009 vintage themselves set records, with Chateau Latour and Chateau Mouton Rothschild charging 550 euros ($737) a bottle and Chateau Cheval Blanc 700 euros a bottle.
Retail prices are higher still: a case of six bottles of 2009 Chateau Lafite Rothschild, for example - the favourite wine of China's millionaires - is on sale on the internet at 8700 euros ($11,659)

Dismissing critics who accuse them of provoking a speculative bubble, the wealthiest vineyards are preparing an increase of between 5 and 15 per cent this year for the 2010 vintage, according to Mr Coumau.

The 2010 vintage will not be delivered until 2013 and connoisseurs will avoid consuming it for many years after that.
But the judgment of Robert Parker, the hugely influential American wine critic, has convinced purchasers that last summer's grapes were almost as sumptuous as the previous year's, hailed as one of the greatest vintages ever.
Mr Parker has said the top chateaux are on course to produce wines of perfection, capable of obtaining scores of 100 out of 100 when they are bottled.
"Parker's scores make us think that we are again looking at a great vintage, perhaps just a tiny bit less good than last year's," Mr Coumau said.
Yet however good the wine may be, most of the buyers will never actually taste it.
Their intention is to sell on at a healthy profit in a few years' time.
The investment is generally worthwhile.
The Live-Ex Claret Chip Index, which charts the price of Bordeaux's top first-growth wines, is up 31.93 per cent over the past year.
Moreover, analysts say there is little sign of an end to the trend so long as China's newly wealthy urban elite keeps buying the best that Bordeaux can offer.
Up to 80 per cent of Chateau Lafite Rothschild is now estimated to end up in the Far East, mainly China. Other chateaux, such as Latour, are also in high demand.
According to Gary Boom, managing director of the London-based Bordeaux Index, of 500 cases of Chateau Lafite Rothschild that he purchased recently, "400 went to the Far East and I'm keeping 100 back for people thinking of selling it to the Far East later".
China now represents Bordeaux's biggest export market, importing wine worth 415million euros last year out of a global total of 3.36 billion euros.

Lafite regains Liv-ex classification crown

Lafite regains Liv-ex classification crown - The Drink Business Lafite has regained its crown as king of the Left Bank after losing out to Latour in 2009, according to Liv-ex’s own classification of the region, based, like that of 1855, on current prices. This year’s Liv-ex classification saw Lafite rise back to the top spot with an average price of £11,043 a case ahead of Latour’s £8,120. La Mission Haut-Brion retains its first growth status that it gained in 2009 but is only just the right side of the price bracket at £3,400 a case, with the cut off at £3,300. Meanwhile, Duhart-Milon, Beychevelle and Pontet-Canet rose up to join the second growths and Léoville-Barton slipped to third growth status. The rise of the first three was attributed to the huge increase in Asian trade that has occurred since 2009 and the popularity of those estates over there. Updated every two years, the wines included in the classification must be Left Bank with a minimum production of 2,000 cases. Taking the average case price, excluding duty and sales tax, for the past five years – 2005-2009 – Liv-ex then splits the wine into five price bands to determine its rankings; as was done way back in 1855. Other good risers in the Liv-ex classification when compared to 1855 are Clerc Milon and Lynch Bages. Classed as a fifth growth in 1855, Lynch Bages has risen 38 places in the rankings to second growth status with an average price of £931 a case as of 30 April 2011. Clerc Milon, meanwhile, has risen 33 places, also taking it out of fifth growth to third growth status and an average price of £422 a case. Although the list does not rank second wines it is very interesting to note that if they were to be included, 13 overall would be on the list with Carruades de Lafite listed as a first growth and Pavillon Rouge, Petit Mouton and Clarence Haut-Brion as seconds. Forts de Latour would be the highest second growth on the list. This result shows how attractive the second wines have become for investment or as an “affordable taste” of the châteaux, helped no doubt by more care and attention put into their production by the estates. Rupert Millar, 26.05.2011

China begins Yquem love affair

China begins Yquem love affair

Château d’Yquem could finally be emerging as a preferred fine wine brand in the Far East according to merchant Bordeaux Index, which has just sold 600 bottles and 1,200 half bottles in a single trade to a Chinese buyer. The famous LVMH-owned Sauternes has for some time been tipped as a must-have label in Asia, particularly after the Chinese authorities legalised the importation of sweet wines, including Sauternes, in September last year. However, forecasts of rapidly rising demand and subsequent price appreciation have not materialised. Nevertheless, Gary Boom, managing director of Bordeaux Index, said of the significant Yquem sale: “Watch this space as we think it could mark the start of a love affair for this ‘liquid gold’ with the mainland Chinese buyers.” Certainly the sweet wine has heritage, status and consistently high scores, which are all crucial in attracting the new fine wine Asian consumer. It is also reassuringly expensive – since LVMH acquired Yquem in 2004 the wine has been released in London at around £4,000, which is double the price of vintages released pre-LVMH ownership. Should Boom’s belief prove true, Yquem could currently be viewed as good value, with pre-2000 vintages in particular appearing something of a bargain. Patrick Schmitt, 17.02.2011

2010: Great but is it a classic?

2010: Great but is it a classic?

the drinks business attended Bibendum’s en primeur tasting of the 2010 vintage yesterday evening and recorded what some of the visiting producers had to say about it. Veronique Sanders of Château Haut Bailly described 2010 as having “the power of 2005, the structure of 2009 and the precision of 2008.” In Sander’s opinion, although 2009 would continue to grab plaudits because it is so “round, sexy and charming”, 2010 will be equally “amazing”. Didier Cuvelier of Léoville Poyferré described 2010 as “2005 plus plus. It has more power, more tannins and more freshness,” he said. The Right Bank producers were also satisfied with the year, with Myriam Ruer of Troplong Mondot noting that 2010 was “better than 2009 and our cold clay soils allowed for better freshness.” Jean-Michel Laporte of La Conseillante also praised the year for having “more power, more freshness and more acidity.” Although 2009 was slightly criticised – particularly the Right Bank – for being out of the ordinary as vintages go – with high alcohol, often jammy and approachable in its youth – 2010 is being regularly hailed as, if not strictly better, then more structured, better for ageing and perhaps more capable of lasting greatness. Nicolas Glumineau of Château Montrose said he thought “although the quality is the same in 2009 and 2010, I think 2010 a more classic year”. However, it is worth noting that alcohol levels remain high in 2010 and are perhaps merely better masked by higher acidity than they were in 2009. It is unlikely to be an early drinking year and will need cellaring, but it is interesting to note – particularly in light of Parker’s recent reassessment – that Eric Perrin of Château Carbonnieux believes 2008 to be the more “classic” of recent vintages and 2010 to be “too powerful”. Wine commentator Joe Wadsack also told db he thought Parker’s points made the vintage appear “more consistent than it actually is. 2010 flatters to deceive,” he said, “and many won’t be as attractive a drink as the likes of 2004.” The 2004s, 2006s and 2007s on offer next to the barrel samples were also a good reminder of just how enjoyable and affordable a great many wines from those vintages are. The 2006 from Château Deyrem Valentin in particular was one of db’s favourites and only £175 a case as well. On the subject of price, many of the producers were guarded. Laporte said: "Nobody can say what the prices will be but I think them unlikely to be more than 2009.” Caught off-guard by a member of the public, Glumineau said he hoped to release 2010 “at the same price as last year.” Considering Montrose released its 2009 vintage at around £1,250 and the 2007 presented on the same table is available for £650, even if prices do not top those of 2009 it’s the Bordelais who’ll reap the benefits again. Rupert Millar, 05.05.2011

What goes up must come down

What goes up must come down

While many major merchants predict Bordeaux 2010 release prices to match or exceed those of 2009, fears are mounting that the majority of fine wine drinkers will be unwilling to stock up on another expensive young vintage, forcing pricing adjustments after first release. Some châteaux have already indicated to the drinks business that pricing will remain more or less the same in 2010. Speaking to db earlier this week, José Bueno, former winemaker at Château Mouton Rothschild and its affiliate estates and now winemaker at Château Clauzet in St Estèphe, reported that prices would go up 5% for his wines. For an estate rated 91/92 by James Suckling, 16 by Jancis Robinson MW and 85/87 by Neal Martin, 5% means a hike from €10.20 a bottle to €10.60. The owner, Baron Maurice Velge, also told db that he did not believe prices would change dramatically and some may even go down on their 2009 levels. Meanwhile, Simon Staples, Berry Bros’ marketing director, has his own theory. Staples recently came up with his own analysis of what might happen this summer. “I can’t see any of the châteaux that we sell at less than £1,500 per case dropping their prices too much on 2009 and, given the quality, in many ways I’d have to agree with them," he said. “However, with less hype than 2009, the world is not in quite as good a mood as this time last year and the fact that last year was also great, with the most expensive prices ever. “I have a theory that those châteaux, even the first growths, selling at £1,500+ will think they’ll sell because the pre-£1,500 per cases have sold, but will flounder a little on release and end up having to be slightly cheaper than 2009 in order to sell.” However, before anyone gets too excited, he stressed: “It’s only a theory so please don’t shoot the theorist if it’s not the case.” Rupert Millar, 12.05.2011

Karl Lagerfeld to design Rauzan-Segla 2009 label

Karl Lagerfeld to design Rauzan-Segla 2009 label

Chanel creative director Karl Lagerfeld is rumoured to have been commissioned to design the 2009 label for Château Rauzan-Ségla. According to a source at a reputable London fine wine merchant, the German fashion designer will create a bespoke label for the ’09 vintage to celebrate the château’s 350th birthday this year. Rauzan-Ségla was bought by Chanel in 1994, so a hook-up with Lagerfeld would be a natural move for the Margaux second growth. Sandrine Bégaud, public relations manager for Rauzan-Ségla, was unable to confirm the collaboration, but said: “It is our 350th anniversary this year and we are trying to design something new for this particular birthday. It is just an idea, nothing real for the moment.” With the continued importance of the Asian market, a Chanel label could spell success in China. Last October, when Château Lafite announced it was to put a Chinese figure eight on every bottle and magnum of its 2008 vintage, case prices went up by nearly 20% overnight.   A Lagerfeld label would have immediate appeal in China, now the fastest-growing consumer of leather goods and jewellery worldwide, where Chanel is the second most lusted-after luxury brand behind Louis Vuitton. “Rauzan-Ségla hasn’t been selling well in China, so a Chanel label would certainly give it a boost,” believes Simon Staples, sales director for Berry Bros & Rudd. Lagerfeld is no stranger to drinks design – he recently designed a trio of limited edition Diet Coke labels for Coca-Cola, and collaborated with prestige cuvée Dom Pérignon to create a bespoke, gold-studded bottle, dubbed “A Bottle Named Desire” for the 1998 vintage, as well as shooting the ad campaign for the Champagne. For an in-depth look at the importance of Bordeaux labels in China, see the May issue of the drinks business. Lucy Shaw, 21.04.2011

Right Bank Bordeaux far from classic

Right Bank Bordeaux far from classic

The 2010 Bordeaux are being touted by some as more classic than 2009. Are they? On the Right Bank, often not really. Pomerol and St Emilion offer many wines that are full of opulence, density, extraction and alcohol – most seem to be between 14% and 15%, and a few are more. They have aroma and some freshness, but a kirsch note, occasionally even reminiscent of amarone, can be found on many. There’s a vast difference between these wines and those of the producers who, year after year, go for restraint. The JP Moueix wines, and the Ausone stable, for example, are outstanding for their balance and finesse. On the Left Bank the picture is different: the Cabernet Sauvignon was less sugar-laden than the Merlot and most are under 14%. They still have massive tannins – "even the juice was tannic this year", says Philippe Dhalluin of Mouton – but with better balance and more freshness. They’ll be long-lived, too, and as they age are likely to throw the opulence and silkiness of the ’09s into sharp relief. Margaret Rand, 21.04.2011

2010 offers fewer potential 100-pointers than 09

2010 offers fewer potential 100-pointers than 09

Wine critic Robert Parker released his notes and provisional points for the 2010 vintage this week and a brief scan over some of the bigger names reveals that those with the potential for 100-points are much scarcer than in 2009. Parker said of the vintage: “It is an inescapable truth that 2010 has produced another year of compelling Bordeaux that will go down as a prodigious vintage alongside 2009. “Take your pick – this news is either tragic or mythical, but I have tasted enough wines from 2005, 2009 and 2010 to realise that these may be the three greatest Bordeaux vintages I have tasted in my career.” He awarded 10 châteaux a potential 100-points, including four of the five first growths. However, a number of 2009’s high-rollers were not among them. These included Chåteau Margaux (now on 96-98); last year’s controversial addition Cos d’Estournel (95-97); Léoville Las Cases (95-98); Léoville Poyferré (95-98); Clinet (95-98); L’Evangile (96-98); Angélus (94-96+) and Pavie (95-98+) to name but a few. His exclusion of Chåteau Margaux in the very top ranks is apparently at odds with the opinion of a great many of the trade, according to Liv-ex’s blog report. On the other hand two of the first growths, Haut Brion and Mouton Rothschild, threw off their ratings of 96 in 2009 and have risen into the 98-100 bracket with the likes of Lafite, Latour and Pétrus – whose ratings didn’t budge. Parker continued his analysis of the two years, saying: “2009 will always be the more “fun” vintage because of its more sumptuous, fruit-forward, lower acid wines with soaring aromatics. “2010 exceeds 2009 in record-setting alcohols, but, paradoxically, it is the fresh acids, lower pHs and massive tannins that have dictated more precision in the mouth despite the record alcohol levels these wines attained. While massive and highly extracted, the 2010s are also fresh and incredibly pure. Moreover, they will enjoy astonishing longevity.” He was also high in his praise for the white wines, saying: “2010 is a top vintage for Bordeaux’s dry whites and 2008 is a good one.” At the same time that Parker released his notes for 2010, he reassessed the 2008s and downgraded some of them significantly, again raising the question mooted by the trade at the time that he had over-scored them; perhaps trying to put his stamp on the vintage as he had with 1982. Lafite remains the top-scoring wine of the vintage but has dropped to 98-points from its initial 98-100 score. Pétrus has fallen from 98-100 to 97, Latour from 96-98 to 95+, Cheval Blanc 95-97 now 93 and Léoville Las Cases now on 93+ from 95-97+. With its previous good points, 2008 became quite the vintage to buy for investors. With the new scores it has, presumably, become less so. Rupert Millar, 05.05.2011

A taste for Bordeaux

The critics have declared Bordeaux's new vintage the best in living memory. But how can they judge wines that won't be ready to drink for another few decades? Join the top tasters who can make or break a reputation

• Robert Booth
• The Guardian, Thursday 8 April 2010

Bordeaux 2009: the best wine of a generation? Link to this video

There is a sliding door off the tasting room at Château Mouton Rothschild, 20 miles north-west of the city of Bordeaux, which opens on to a cellar stacked with 500 oak barrels of newborn wine so well-made it is likely to outlive almost all of us. Lying in immaculate rows in a crypt-like hush, this is the Mouton 2009, part of one of the most hyped Bordeaux vintages in history.

Alabaster busts of former Rothschild barons look down over the slowly maturing liquids. If their lips seem to be smiling, it is with good reason. Before it was even tasted, the wine world buzzed with talk that Bordeaux's first growths – five elite wines, including Mouton – could be at their best in living memory: so good, in fact, that there are hopes the stock of Mouton could sell for more than £40m – almost £4,000 per 12-bottle case.

At such a young age, the only guides to knowing whether these wines are worth such stratospheric sums are a handful of the world's leading wine critics swirling, sniffing and swilling in judgment back in the tasting room. They are a group loved and loathed in equal measure by wine-makers because, put simply, their deliberations can add or wipe millions from the wines' value. Pre-eminent among the owners of these elite noses and palates is Robert Parker, a Maryland lawyer-turned-critic whose simple innovation of scoring wines out of a hundred has drawn such a huge consumer following that he now has the power to double or triple the value of a wine.

Mouton is not alone in enduring such merciless scrutiny. The same nail-biting process took place last week in scores of Bordeaux chateaux, as samples of the still-raw vintage were drawn from the barrels and tasted in public by merchants and critics for the first time. The wine-makers who stand opposite them, awaiting judgment, have been known to lose their jobs after a bad review.

This ruthless ritual happens every year and precedes the setting of prices for the release of wine "en primeur", a futures market that involves buying while the drink is still maturing in barrel. But how do these arbiters of taste and commerce come to wield such power, and how can they possibly divine the future quality of wines that, in some cases, may not even reach their peak for another 50 years?

The truth is, not everyone believes the critics have the powers of tasting judgment that the wine industry ascribes to them. There is a growing body of evidence that suggests their ability to pick the best wines is more luck than judgment. In a year of such high expectations, due to almost perfect grape-growing weather last summer, the quality of the judgments is under intense scrutiny. One study of the impact Parker has had over several decades suggested that a single "Parker point" can add or subtract 7% from a bottle's price – and much more for the most expensive wines.

"Parker is the most important critic, bar none," says Philippe Blanc, wine-maker at Château Beychevelle, who has endured good and bad marks from the American. "In some properties, directors like me can get sacked if he gives them a bad mark."

Parker keeps an almost comically low profile, and rarely tastes in public. Wine makers instead send samples to his hotel (rumour has it he once booked in at a Sofitel on Bordeaux's ring road, avoiding the old-world luxury of the region's chateaux and hotels). They then wait, often more than a month, for the score that will shape their family's fortune.

Parker came and went this year before tasting week began; tastings of the best wines, normally organised for hundreds of merchants at a time, were opened for him alone. The only inkling of his thoughts so far is his brief posting on Twitter (@robertmparkerjr) about his joy at the fine weather, and that he had worked up a mighty appetite for a meal at his favourite Paris restaurant on the way home. He will publish his scores in the coming weeks.

Others, like Britain's Jancis Robinson, whose reviews in the Financial Times are responsible for guiding the tastes of the so-called "Davos generation" of super-rich wine lovers, and the veteran Steven Spurrier, are more open. They buzz around the region's country lanes in people carriers, alighting on different chateaux like bees seeking the most delicious nectar. Most will taste and spit as many as 600 wines during tasting week, and end each day with gruesome-looking tannin-coated teeth and purple fingertips.

"Bordeaux tasting is the toughest week of my year, no doubt," says Robinson. "I am here for six days, and over that period I will taste about 100 different wines a day, most of them red. Such embryonic liquids, with their high levels of acidity and tannin, rarely caress the palate – they are more likely to assault it. Cups of tea and regular food help, but even though it sounds like a dream job for a wine lover, the sheer volume and the very demanding timetable make it very taxing."

The process is mentally tough, too – like listening to a child chorister sing and trying to predict whether they are destined to sing at the Royal Opera House or in the local church choir. Get it wrong, and the critics' reputations suffer.

Wherever critics and merchants tasted last week, wine-makers would look on anxiously as the fruits of more than a year's labour in the fields and winery were judged. Berry Brothers & Rudd, the wine merchants which stocks the Queen's cellars, could spend as much as £70m on the basis of the week's tastings.

It is a ruthless business. The Berry team scores wines out of 20, and anything less than 15 faces the chop. I joined them for a day's tasting last week, which began with the sun barely in the sky at the mid-ranking Château Haut-Bages-Libéral. Five minutes later, the cold grip of the new wine's raw tannins are jostling with traces of coffee and croissant from breakfast. Simon Staples, the firm's barrel-chested sales director, swirls the crimson liquid, sniffs several times, holds it and spits out a well-practised blade of wine. "Fantastic texture," he declares. "Crunchy fruit," adds a colleague.

They seem quietly impressed and the owner, Claire Villers-Lurton, looks relieved. "Normally, when the critics come, this is a very scary time for us," she says afterwards. "But this year we are confident that we have a very good vintage – better, I think, than the historic 2000. I am biased, of course, because this is like being the mother of an infant."

There are nerves the next day at the first growths, the top wines (as identified by the 1855 classification of the Médoc wine region) whose names are legends of wine: Margaux, Latour, Mouton, Lafite and Haut-Brion. Lafite's wine-maker, Charles Chevallier, makes defiant noises as he prepares to show his wines. "I know we have prepared the definitive blend of the wine," he says, as the critics file in and take their places.

Opposite him, under a portrait of the current owner, Baron Eric de Rothschild, are ranged Robinson, Spurrier and other critics. A reverent hush descends, and the tasters turn to the wines in three glasses set out on pure white blotting paper to better show the extraordinary crimson and almost ultra-violet colours of the Lafite.

It is quickly clear that Chevallier indeed had nothing to worry about. Peering through her trademark round spectacles, Robinson punches "bravo" into her laptop and notes the vintage's "fine-boned structure", as if it were some kind of aristocratic debutante. Spurrier, almost disbelieving at the quality, scores it 19.5 out of 20.

"It is hard to imagine what needs to be done to improve on this," he declares delightedly, before running off to his next tasting at Cos d'Estournel. "This is pretty much perfection. It will be a wine for the next 50 years."

The process of divining the future quality of wines that will not reach maturity for at least a decade is far from simple, but Robinson has written a brief guide for beginners. Her first advice is pleasingly practical: wear dark clothes to avoid splashback from the spittoon.

But then it gets more mysterious. She talks about a wine managing to "convince" her that a lack of aroma is down to youthful "reticence". She might expect cassis, minerals, cigar box, currant bush leafiness. She says the new Lafite tasted of milk chocolate. Tannins are "green through rasping to sandy and grainy, and finally almost gentle and ripe". For a novice tasting such raw wines for the first time, it is hard to see beyond the tannins and acid to this store cupboard of flavours.

But how good are the critics really at judging, and are buyers and producers right to rely so heavily on their views? Some chateau owners complain that Parker has single-handedly changed how many of them make wine. Because he is thought to like so-called "fruit bombs" – juicy, high-alcohol wines – they have adapted to please his market-moving tastebuds. The veteran British critic Hugh Johnson once attacked him as "a dictator of taste".

The technical abilities of critics more generally are also in question. Can they really spot all those unusual "notes" of tobacco, leather, cherry wood, toasted herbs and many more in a single sip of wine? A study in the journal of experimental psychology showed that it is hard to identify more than four components, yet critics regularly refer to many more. So in 2008, a retired professor of statistics from Humbolt University in the US decided to take a closer look.

Robert Hodgson, who went on to become a small wine-maker himself, discovered that the judges of the important California State Wine Fair in Sacramento struggled to reach the same conclusion tasting the same wine twice. He vetted up to 70 judges over three years, asking them to rate on a scale of 80 to 100 three samples of each wine poured from the same bottle. Only one in 10 of the judges could rate the same wine within two points, and typically varied by four points.

Last year, Hodgson analysed 2,440 wines in more US contests, and found 84% of gold medal winners in one contest won no medal in another. He concluded: "Many wines that are viewed as extraordinarily good at some competitions are viewed as below average in others." His verdict was that "winning a gold medal may be more a matter of chance than a predictor of quality".

So for anyone considering spending hundreds – or even thousands – of pounds on a single case of Bordeaux 2009 that has yet to be bottled, Hodgson's research is a cautionary tale. There again, investment returns can be handsome: a study by the American Association of Wine Economists shows that between 1996 and today, investors in Bordeaux wines have typically enjoyed a return of 200%.

But for most wine lovers, a largely romantic breed, it will be easier to simply believe that, after a few disappointing years, Bordeaux has just delivered what some are billing "the greatest vintage ever".